Fund managers are surprisingly optimistic despite a stagnant stock market and a tumultuous bond market, according to the latest Bank of America survey.
Despite the Federal Reserve signaling it will cut interest rates this year, fund managers don’t expect a dramatic shift in the market. The survey shows that 62% of managers expect global economic growth to slow over the next 12 months, but 81% anticipate the Fed will start cutting rates before the end of the year. “The market is pricing in a soft landing, but the risk of a hard landing is still there,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America. “The market is also pricing in a lot of rate cuts, but the Fed may not deliver as many as expected.” Fund managers are also concerned about geopolitical risks, including the war in Ukraine and the upcoming U.S. presidential election. However, they remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for the stock market. According to the survey, 58% of fund managers expect global equities to rise over the next 12 months. However, they are also bracing for volatility. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, is currently trading at around 13, which is considered to be low. But fund managers expect it to rise in the coming months. “The market is likely to be more volatile in the coming months,” said Hartnett. “There are a lot of risks out there, but there are also a lot of opportunities.” Fund managers are also starting to shift their portfolios away from equities and towards fixed income. According to the survey, 38% of managers are now overweight fixed income, up from 24% in January. Many asset allocators are waiting for bond yields to hit 6% before they flip the switch from equities to fixed income, but a significant portion are already making the transition.نگرانی مدیران صندوق‌ها از رکود بازار سهام و نوسانات بازار اوراق قرضه
بسیاری از تخصیص‌دهندگان دارایی منتظر رسیدن بازده اوراق قرضه به 6 درصد هستند تا از سهام به اوراق قرضه تغییر رویه دهند، اما بخش قابل توجهی از آن‌ها در حال حاضر در حال انجام این تغییر هستند.
منبع:
MarketWatch