صادرات نفت خاورمیانه در حال بازیابی است؛ حملات اخیر در عربستان سعودی نشان‌دهنده ریسک‌های باقی‌مانده است

More oil is flowing out of the Persian Gulf again, with exports approaching prewar levels.

So why are prices so stubbornly high?

Crude oil prices have been stubbornly high in recent weeks despite a rebound in Middle East oil exports following attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities in September.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded around $85.50 a barrel in early trading Thursday.

That’s still up about 18% since the attacks in September.

The attacks knocked out about 5% of global oil supply.

Saudi Arabia quickly restored production, however.

“The recovery in Middle East oil exports has been surprisingly swift,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS.

“Saudi Arabia has restored production capacity in record time.”

Saudi Arabia’s oil exports in October rose by about 1 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg data.

That brings exports close to prewar levels.

However, prices haven’t fallen as much as expected.

Several factors are contributing to the high prices.

One is geopolitical risk.

Tensions in the Middle East remain high.

Iran continues to threaten attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Another factor is OPEC+ production cuts.

OPEC+ has been cutting production to support prices.

The group has agreed to continue cutting production through March.

“OPEC+ continues to manage supply,” said Staunovo.

“They want to keep prices above $80.”

Finally, demand is strong.

The global economy is growing.

China is recovering from COVID-19.

All of these factors are contributing to the high prices.

“The market is pricing in geopolitical risk,” said Robert McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.

“And OPEC+ is keeping supply tight.”

The attacks in Saudi Arabia showed how vulnerable oil supplies are.

Even a temporary disruption can send prices soaring.

Fresh attacks in Saudi Arabia this week show risks remain.

Houthi rebels in Yemen launched drones and missiles at Saudi oil facilities.

The attacks caused minor damage.

But they serve as a reminder of the potential for disruption.